Pitches, Balls and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|